Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

88 0x8842…4f97 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$22 (+10%) realized −$96 · open +$118

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$76per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+34.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+48.5%	+34.3%	50%	50%	+15.7%
≤90d	2	+48.5%	+34.3%	50%	50%	+15.7%
all	2	+48.5%	+34.3%	50%	50%	+15.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+34.3%	50%	+15.7%
10%	+21.5%	50%	+4.6%
15%	+9.8%	50%	-5.5%
20%	-1.0%	50%	-14.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +48% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$4 · ×4.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.82 per $1 lost it wins $4.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$276

Realized−$96

Unrealized+$118

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage15d

Avg bet$76

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	40¢	69¢	$158	$276	+$118 (+74%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$41	−$4	-11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$20	+$21	+108%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$53	1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	47¢	$113	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$37	9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$41	10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$20	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.79 · official $275.83 (match) · 8 history records