Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
88 0x8844…b7e5 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$4 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$47
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$24
other 40% +$61
world 4% $0
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.8% -4.3% 79% 79% -2.6%
≤30d 15 -1.3% -10.7% 73% 73% -4.7%
≤90d 16 +5.7% -4.4% 75% 75% -4.3%
all 39 +19.7% +8.3% 54% 54% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 54% -9.5%
10% -2.1% 41% -18.2%
15% -11.6% 31% -26.1%
20% -20.2% 26% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage119d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $63 $70 +$7 (+11%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$10 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 +$8 +23%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$5 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$27 +37%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 +$9 +21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 +$10 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$10 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Apr 28 $3 +$3 +109%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Derrick White: Assists O/U 6.5 Feb 28 $54 +$72 +133%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5 Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 18.5 Feb 27 $6 +$1 +24%
Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Klay Thompson: Points O/U 11.5 Feb 27 $14 +$20 +138%
Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 Feb 26 $2 +$8 +386%
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 27.5 Feb 26 $12 −$12 -100%
John Collins: Points O/U 14.5 Feb 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Feb 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Feb 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Moses Moody: Assists O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $17 +$25 +144%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 8.5 Feb 25 $26 +$39 +150%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Marcinko vs. Birrell: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Feb 24 $41 +$17 +42%
Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 17.5 Feb 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 Feb 24 $56 +$61 +108%
Townsend vs. Gracheva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Feb 23 $57 −$1 -2%
ATX Open: Jessica Pegula vs Rebecca Sramkova Feb 23 $58 −$1 -2%
Grayson Allen: Points O/U 18.5 Feb 23 $34 −$33 -95%
Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Feb 22 $15 +$18 +120%
Jalen Green: Assists O/U 3.5 Feb 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 23.5 Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $63 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $63 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $115 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $100 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $37 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 31¢ $8 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 51¢ $13 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $90 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $52 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $43 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $34 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $49 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 7d
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY Brute 47¢ $3 58d
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 38¢ $46 110d
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY No 48¢ $7 113d
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 18.5 SELL Yes 50¢ $8 113d
Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 43¢ $43 113d
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 43¢ $3 113d
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 38¢ $3 114d
Derrick White: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 43¢ $54 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.94 · official $132.73 (match) · 72 history records