Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8847…fc98 sports 552 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$569 (+1%) realized +$559 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%259W / 286L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$434est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$256
14 days−$641
30 days−$2,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$311
other 25% −$206
world 0% +$16
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 100 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 37% -31.5%
≤90d 479 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 42% -13.8%
all 545 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 47% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 47% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 46% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 41% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 32% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$74 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$559
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses259 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$434
Open positions7
Markets (closed)545 / 552
History coverage116d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 71¢ 70¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 73¢ 72¢ $58 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Gentle Mates 40¢ 52¢ $44 $57 +$13 (+30%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $199 −$197 -99%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Game Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Modo Serio (+1.5) Jun 12 $58 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $7 +$4 +60%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $233 −$228 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $68 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $104 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 04 $20 −$19 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $56 +$21 +38%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? Jun 02 $175 +$235 +134%
Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 3? Jun 02 $21 −$20 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? Jun 02 $459 −$451 -98%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $72 +$35 +48%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $128 +$323 +252%
Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 4? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 01 $178 −$174 -98%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $2 +$3 +172%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe May 31 $121 −$119 -98%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 31 $268 −$261 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner May 31 $270 −$266 -99%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO5) - Odyssey Cup Brazil May 31 $44 +$45 +101%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $31 −$31 -99%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs against All authority (BO3) - NODWIN May 30 $104 −$101 -97%
Map Handicap: ex-Zero Tenacity (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) May 29 $54 +$113 +211%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winner May 29 $12 +$18 +150%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner May 29 $6 +$17 +262%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 29 $150 −$148 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Gr May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Just Players - Map 2 Winner May 28 $44 +$42 +95%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $72 −$71 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 28 $168 −$164 -98%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutc May 28 $364 −$356 -98%
Map Handicap: VOCA (-1.5) vs Chicken Coop Esports (+1.5) May 27 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Sta May 27 $122 −$120 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ALGO Esports (+1.5) May 27 $713 −$700 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $73 −$72 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 27 $11 +$22 +197%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 27 $78 +$70 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division (BO3) - ESL Challenger L May 27 $114 +$107 +94%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner May 26 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr May 26 $139 −$136 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Lilmix - Map 1 Winner May 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe May 26 $13 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $66 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $59 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $24 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $36 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 1h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 40¢ $44 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $113 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $85 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $113 4d
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O BUY Modo Serio 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Game Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Modo Serio (+1.5) BUY Modo Serio 45¢ $58 5d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 62¢ $7 13d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY Passion Academy 28¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner BUY Passion Academy 35¢ $77 13d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner BUY Passion Academy 40¢ $74 13d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 2 Winner BUY Passion Academy 40¢ $81 13d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY Passion Academy 40¢ $93 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $65 13d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S BUY Entropy 16¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 1 Winner BUY Entropy 30¢ $9 14d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S BUY Entropy 15¢ $40 14d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S BUY Entropy 17¢ $6 14d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY CHAOS 36¢ $6 14d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY CHAOS 36¢ $2 14d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY CHAOS 36¢ $12 14d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S BUY Entropy 20¢ $53 14d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $2 15d
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 42¢ $175 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.97 · official $369.97 (match) · 1400 history records