Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
88 0x8848…0bec politics 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$300 (+12%) realized +$318 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%27W / 28L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$25
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% +$332
world 25% +$66
tech 9% −$15
sports 7% −$87
other 5% −$34
crypto 5% +$18
culture 1% −$3
finance 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 33% -3.2%
≤30d 11 -4.3% -13.5% 27% 27% -10.2%
≤90d 26 +14.7% +3.8% 46% 38% -6.2%
all 55 +1.3% -8.3% 49% 44% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 44% +2.0%
10% -17.1% 36% -7.7%
15% -25.1% 31% -16.6%
20% -32.5% 25% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$16 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)55 / 59
History coverage250d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 83¢ 96¢ $165 $191 +$26 (+16%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 39¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $36 −$17 -48%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $24 +$21 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 21 $70 +$92 +130%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during N Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $35 $0 -1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $2 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $102 −$6 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 +$3 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $98 −$18 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $206 −$12 -6%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Democrat" 3+ times during th May 20 $32 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 06 $5 $0 -8%
Will Marco Rubio be the first substitute White House Press Secretary? May 06 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" at The Villages on May 1? May 06 $87 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 01 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 01 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Trump say "Common sense" during TPUSA events on April 17? Apr 18 $16 +$22 +143%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? Apr 17 $104 +$15 +15%
Will Leavitt say "Ukraine" during the next White House press briefing? Apr 08 $20 +$20 +100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $82 −$53 -64%
Will Trump say "CIA" or "Ratcliffe" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Weather" or "Rain" or "Raining" during the White House Apr 06 $39 +$71 +183%
Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation? Apr 05 $44 +$86 +194%
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister Mar 18 $136 +$34 +25%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? (March 15) Mar 13 $45 +$33 +73%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during Miami address? Mar 09 $150 +$147 +98%
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Miami address? Mar 09 $259 +$67 +26%
Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28? Oct 30 $15 +$7 +49%
Over 20M humans verified on World Network by December 31? Oct 30 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Trump say "Chip" or "Drone" during Malaysia events on October 26? Oct 28 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? Oct 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Oct 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will anyone say "Donald" or "Trump" 3+ times during South Park e6 s27? Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Procter & Gamble say "Mason Campus" during earnings call? Oct 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will anyone say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during South Park e6 s27? Oct 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Trump say "Australia" 8+ times during Australia PM events on Octo Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5 Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5 Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Aluminum" during Australia PM events on October 20? Oct 24 $10 −$10 -100%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leavitt say "President" 80+ times during next White House press b Oct 24 $10 +$32 +316%
Will anyone say "National Guard" 5+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debat Oct 23 $5 +$8 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL FOKUS 27¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 38¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 42¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY FOKUS 51¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 53¢ $24 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $3 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $3 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 3h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $9 4h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $3 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $3 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $4 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $10 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 8¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.94 · official $204.94 (match) · 163 history records