Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8849…765a
crypto · 244 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$132 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$132 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses223 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 244
History coverage17d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day183.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 258 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$605
7 days−$582
14 days−$621
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 29? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Celtics Celtics 55¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Oh My God 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 28? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend JD Gaming 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
76ers vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Magic Magic 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs Vici Gaming 73¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 6AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Falcons 86¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 29? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 29 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Jun 12 $164 −$164 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 28? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $50 −$41 -83%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Jun 12 $5 −$7 -131%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) - ESL Challenger China P Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 28? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 6AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$13 -110%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $109 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$45
other 9% +$517
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 -6.6% -15.5% 89% 1% -14.9%
≤30d 258 -4.1% -13.2% 86% 2% -10.3%
≤90d 258 -4.1% -13.2% 86% 2% -10.3%
all 258 -4.1% -13.2% 86% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover183.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 2% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records