Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
88 0x884a…2f2a sports 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$308 (-1%) realized −$343 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate76%93W / 30L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,069
7 days−$343
14 days−$169
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$11
other 14% −$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.6% -8.1% 78% 52% -11.3%
≤30d 123 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 49% -11.1%
≤90d 123 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 49% -11.1%
all 123 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 49% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 49% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 20% -19.6%
15% -27.8% 9% -27.4%
20% -34.9% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$112 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$343
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses93 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 127
History coverage15d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Over 49¢ 76¢ $63 $98 +$35 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$15 +31%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $1,255 −$1,253 -100%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 18 $3 +$1 +38%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 18 $1,109 +$145 +13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $18 −$13 -70%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $16 +$4 +24%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $1,100 +$15 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $988 +$117 +12%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $776 +$217 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $807 −$29 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $688 +$126 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $687 −$687 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $401 +$38 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $333 +$7 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$55 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $55 +$4 +7%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1,067 +$130 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $1,001 −$8 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $94 +$48 +51%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $77 +$12 +16%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $950 +$50 +5%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $109 +$10 +10%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $899 +$59 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$12 +18%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $795 +$108 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 13 $784 +$160 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $145 +$159 +109%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $531 +$98 +18%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $471 +$40 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $469 +$29 +6%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $427 +$42 +10%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $350 +$77 +22%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $50 −$28 -56%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $375 +$9 +2%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $53 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 49¢ $64 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $49 3h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano SELL Olimpia Milano 100¢ $4 3h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 72¢ $3 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona SELL Barcelona 11¢ $2 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 91¢ $7 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Valencia 91¢ $1,243 5h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet SELL Xiyu Wang 100¢ $1,254 5h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 28¢ $4 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $4 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $4 6h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet BUY Xiyu Wang 88¢ $1,109 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 7h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 29¢ $5 7h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 94¢ $18 8h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $9 18h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $7 19h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $1,100 19h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $1,105 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $7 20h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 92¢ $5 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $6 21h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 89¢ $983 21h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $992 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY 2¢ $2 23h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 78¢ $166 23h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 78¢ $5 23h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 78¢ $115 23h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 78¢ $39 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.06 · official $100.56 · 398 history records