Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x884c…2ee9 weather 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$121 (-12%) realized −$108 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%38W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$115
other 6% −$15
politics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$10
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +46.8% +32.8% 67% 67% +44.5%
≤30d 5 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 40% +10.6%
≤90d 93 -21.0% -28.5% 34% 29% -22.1%
all 102 -16.8% -24.8% 37% 31% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 31% -21.1%
10% -32.0% 29% -28.6%
15% -38.5% 25% -35.5%
20% -44.6% 22% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage104d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $14 +$21 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 +$14 +84%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on May 5? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5? May 05 $1 +$2 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? May 04 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4? May 04 $5 −$5 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? May 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3? May 03 $5 +$16 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 3? May 03 $24 +$9 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 1? May 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 1? May 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 2? May 02 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? May 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 1? May 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1? May 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 1? May 01 $10 +$42 +404%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? Apr 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 30? Apr 30 $59 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30? Apr 30 $20 +$8 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 30? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 30? Apr 30 $33 +$30 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 30? Apr 29 $18 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 29? Apr 29 $26 −$8 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 29? Apr 29 $25 +$15 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28? Apr 28 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 28? Apr 28 $9 −$5 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 28? Apr 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28? Apr 28 $15 +$19 +130%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 26? Apr 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 26? Apr 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 26? Apr 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25? Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 26? Apr 26 $15 +$17 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 25? Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25? Apr 25 $14 +$16 +110%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 24? Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 25? Apr 25 $11 +$18 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 24? Apr 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 24? Apr 24 $10 +$11 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 24? Apr 24 $8 +$13 +161%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 23? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Apr 23 $6 +$11 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 22? Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 53¢ $17 22h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 26d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on May 5? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 51d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 51d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 52d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 52d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 52d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 52d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 52d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 52d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 52d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 52d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 53d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 53d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 53d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 53d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 4? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 53d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3? SELL Yes 86¢ $21 53d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 53d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 53d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 53d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 247 history records