Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x884e…6f62
crypto · 271 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$131 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$66 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses112 / 158
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)270 / 271
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day88.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 270 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$31
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Sara Bejlek 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Sho Shimabukuro 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 M80 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -61%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$20 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +36%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$11 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $8 +$4 +45%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$10 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$26 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$25 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +46%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 +$4 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 53% +$22
sports 42% +$47
other 2% −$3
world 2% −$1
politics 1% +$2
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +9.4% -1.0% 48% 45% -3.8%
≤30d 270 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 39% -3.0%
≤90d 270 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 39% -3.0%
all 270 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 39% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover88.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 39% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 36% -12.2%
15% -26.3% 34% -20.7%
20% -33.5% 24% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 1011 history records