Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x884f…4ef3 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$1
other 28% −$2
politics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
finance 3% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.5% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 31% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 31% 6% -9.3%
all 36 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage472d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $35 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $35 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 +$1 +29%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $3 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend? Mar 16 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $37 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $35 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $39 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $39 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $6 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.42 · official $40.42 (match) · 111 history records