Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8854…4d4d crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$196 (-11%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -31.4% -37.9% 56% 6% -28.5%
≤30d 18 -31.4% -37.9% 56% 6% -28.5%
≤90d 18 -31.4% -37.9% 56% 6% -28.5%
all 18 -31.4% -37.9% 56% 6% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 6% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -43.9% 6% -35.4%
15% -49.3% 0% -41.6%
20% -54.3% 0% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$55 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$15 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $200 −$96 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $58 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $206 −$83 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $201 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $203 +$53 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $200 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $15 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $10 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $19 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records