Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8857…4b5b sports 506 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,536 (-2%) realized −$4,041 · open −$495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%226W / 278L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$2,999est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$4,604
other 17% −$12,363
crypto 0% −$196
finance 0% −$130
politics 0% −$10
world 0% −$54
weather 0% −$93
tech 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -8.8% -17.5% 48% 47% -6.3%
≤30d 483 -8.8% -17.4% 45% 43% -12.6%
≤90d 504 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 43% -12.7%
all 504 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 43% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 43% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 38% -21.0%
15% -32.6% 28% -28.6%
20% -39.2% 18% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$371 vs −$329 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4,041
Unrealized−$495
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses226 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,999
Open positions2
Markets (closed)504 / 506
History coverage34d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Monastir: Viktor Frydrych vs Ali Yazdani Ali Yazdani 26¢ 0¢ $250 $5 −$245 (-98%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Raphael Perot 26¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog Jun 18 $266 +$279 +105%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $251 −$245 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $145 −$145 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $511 −$511 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $494 −$494 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,497 +$1,509 +101%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $498 −$456 -92%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $126 −$70 -55%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $503 −$503 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $191 −$191 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $102 +$176 +173%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $102 +$45 +44%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $150 +$303 +201%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $153 +$203 +133%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $255 +$394 +155%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $455 +$260 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $495 −$303 -61%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $234 −$234 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $801 −$801 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $621 −$612 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,574 −$1,574 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $503 +$648 +129%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,909 +$2,089 +109%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1,909 +191%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $653 +$422 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $132 +$63 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $149 +$69 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $148 +$42 +28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $83 +$62 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $147 +$85 +58%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $57 +$29 +52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $148 +$66 +45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $147 +$55 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $143 +$54 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $150 +$68 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $149 +$32 +21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $149 −$16 -11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $149 +$36 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $658 +$750 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,895 +$1,839 +97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $148 −$148 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Monastir: Viktor Frydrych vs Ali Yazdani BUY Ali Yazdani 26¢ $256 1h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 26¢ $256 1h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog SELL Valentina Ivanov 79¢ $545 1h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Valentina Ivanov 46¢ $56 2h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Valentina Ivanov 36¢ $210 2h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 15¢ $251 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $511 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $494 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3,005 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $145 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,497 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 4¢ $42 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $56 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $457 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $126 19h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 100¢ $278 20h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ $147 20h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 36¢ $102 20h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 42¢ $153 21h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 38¢ $102 21h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 30¢ $102 21h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 37¢ $102 22h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 26¢ $49 22h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke SELL Christopher OConnell 100¢ $355 22h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 42¢ $153 24h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau SELL Alexis Galarneau 93¢ $649 24h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 36¢ $255 24h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 96¢ $715 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.29 · official $5.29 (match) · 1506 history records