Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8859…22c0 world 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$294 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$289
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate82%128W / 28L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,068now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$237
7 days−$229
14 days−$223
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$256
other 18% +$483
politics 17% +$372
finance 7% −$366
tech 1% +$62
sports 1% −$104
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -55.8% -60.0% 33% 17% -80.6%
≤30d 17 -15.6% -23.6% 71% 18% -15.4%
≤90d 44 +1.3% -8.3% 77% 41% -17.5%
all 156 +1.6% -8.0% 82% 35% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 35% -9.8%
10% -16.8% 16% -18.4%
15% -24.9% 11% -26.3%
20% -32.2% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$156 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$1,068
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$289
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses128 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)156 / 161
History coverage364d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $380 $487 +$107 (+28%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 53¢ 100¢ $199 $374 +$175 (+88%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 84¢ $160 $169 +$9 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 84¢ 82¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? Yes $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +59%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $194 +$5 +2%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $209 +$7 +3%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31? Jun 01 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $300 +$54 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $267 +$19 +7%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 29 $60 +$6 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $80 +$9 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $97 +$3 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $105 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $25 +$2 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $483 +$37 +8%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $2 +$8 +376%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 09 $191 +$9 +4%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30? May 01 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? May 01 $107 +$12 +11%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? May 01 $100 +$14 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $58 +$4 +8%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $344 +$56 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $154 +$46 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $558 −$556 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 07 $98 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $144 +$74 +52%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? Apr 01 $20 +$4 +22%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 01 $730 +$44 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? Apr 01 $188 +$24 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $200 +$77 +38%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 01 $210 +$73 +35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 26 $104 −$91 -87%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 19 $114 −$94 -82%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 16 $3 $0 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $252 +$12 +5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? Mar 15 $137 +$3 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 13 $50 $0 +0%
U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7? Mar 11 $50 +$14 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $26 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $11 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $28 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $166 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $199 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 97¢ $112 11d
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of BUY Yes 99¢ $99 11d
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of BUY Yes 99¢ $99 11d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 97¢ $0 11d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 97¢ $81 12d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $156 16d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 16d
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 18d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $76 18d
Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 19d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $267 20d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 20d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $89 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,068.42 · official $1,068.20 (match) · 754 history records