Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x885f…7bf9 weather 766 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$138 (+2%) realized +$127 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%304W / 458L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$22
14 days+$210
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 61% +$220
other 39% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +4.2% -5.7% 38% 36% -6.0%
≤30d 406 +4.5% -5.4% 37% 35% -3.8%
≤90d 730 +1.5% -8.1% 40% 34% -6.5%
all 762 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 33% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 33% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 26% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 21% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 17% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses304 / 458
Open positions4
Markets (closed)762 / 766
History coverage108d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 762 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 52¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? No 85¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$24 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$18 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$9 -76%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $20 +$14 +73%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 14 $20 −$8 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$8 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$12 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$16 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$22 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$19 +629%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$18 -69%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $12 +$16 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$10 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$17 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $4 +$5 +113%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 15¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 15¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.62 · official $44.62 (match) · 2587 history records