Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8866…a584 sports 302 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,750 (-3%) realized −$4,754 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%133W / 159L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$480per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$420est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$469
7 days−$2,181
14 days−$2,022
30 days−$2,212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$635
sports 22% −$626
world 15% −$177
other 12% −$1,754
crypto 9% +$24
finance 2% −$60
culture 1% +$3
economics 0% −$18
tech 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -12.4% -20.8% 36% 36% -45.2%
≤30d 84 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 43% -17.7%
≤90d 200 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 36% -11.5%
all 292 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 39% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 39% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 37% -20.0%
15% -25.8% 36% -27.7%
20% -33.1% 33% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$66 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$778
Realized−$4,754
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses133 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions9
Markets (closed)292 / 302
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$480
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $336 $331 −$5 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 52¢ $150 $159 +$9 (+6%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 55¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $127 −$35 -28%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $148 +$46 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $565 −$354 -63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $258 −$160 -62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$22 +85%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$56 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $84 −$24 -28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$26 +65%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 16 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $177 −$177 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $267 −$267 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $423 −$423 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $881 −$881 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $147 +$153 +104%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$41 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$31 -60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 −$8 -23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $56 +$48 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $112 +$17 +15%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $337 −$111 -33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $22 +$28 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $178 +$298 +167%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $26 +$27 +104%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $21 +$9 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $62 +$45 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $35 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $17 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $99 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $19 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $3 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $26 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 10h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 14h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $9 24h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $39 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $3 25h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 27h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 33h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 34h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $49 35h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $12 35h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $61 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $124 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $777.67 · official $777.68 (match) · 3500 history records