Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x886e…fb0b crypto 17 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+4%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.0% -7.7% 65% 65% -7.3%
≤30d 17 +2.0% -7.7% 65% 65% -7.3%
≤90d 17 +2.0% -7.7% 65% 65% -7.3%
all 17 +2.0% -7.7% 65% 65% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 65% -7.3%
10% -16.5% 53% -16.2%
15% -24.6% 41% -24.3%
20% -32.0% 35% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records