Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x8870…b813 politics 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$5
world 14% −$1
other 1% −$6
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -3.6% -12.8% 6% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage247d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $200 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -21%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 08 $15 −$6 -38%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 20 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 55m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 5h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 8h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 8h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 11h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 12h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 16h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 19h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 22h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 23h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 29h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 33h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 35h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 35h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 36h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 39h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 40h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.35 · official $1.35 (match) · 47 history records