Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8872…5f19 crypto 1042 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$461 (-6%) realized −$460 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%466W / 571L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days+$22
30 days−$660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$518
other 22% +$59
sports 3% −$105
weather 1% +$6
politics 1% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -14.6% -22.8% 41% 34% -10.2%
≤30d 242 -61.3% -65.0% 19% 17% -32.8%
≤90d 1037 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 35% -16.6%
all 1037 -12.5% -20.8% 45% 35% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 35% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 29% -24.6%
15% -35.3% 26% -31.8%
20% -41.6% 23% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses466 / 571
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1037 / 1042
History coverage84d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1037 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $201 +$103 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$2 -21%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $207 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$30 +282%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 +$4 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $81 +$48 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $140 +$22 +16%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 +$219 +711%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $304 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 93¢ $187 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $33 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $13 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $8 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.07 · official $49.07 (match) · 3085 history records