trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 43% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -5.7% | -14.6% | 40% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 27 | -1.5% | -10.8% | 56% | 4% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.8% | 4% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -19.4% | 4% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 4% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -34.3% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 17 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 27 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $42 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $80 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 26 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 24 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $37 | +$2 | +5% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 23 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 21 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 19 | $4 | $0 | +9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 19 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Mar 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 26 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? | May 25 | $23 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? | Apr 17 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Apr 16 | $1 | $0 | +38% |
| Will Jake Paul fight Jorge Masvidal next? | Apr 16 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Apr 15 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18? | Apr 15 | $22 | $0 | +1% |