Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8877…33dc sports 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%11W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$4
politics 22% −$2
other 21% −$4
crypto 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.1%
all 175 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses11 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage165d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 26 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $38 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 15 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 28 $84 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 28 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 28 $121 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $179 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 28 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $133 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 24 $109 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 24 $77 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $166 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $165 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 1h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 9h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $27 8d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $27 8d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $35 21d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $35 21d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $37 33d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $38 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $37 41d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 42d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $16 116d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 116d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $16 116d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 116d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 116d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $35 116d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $35 116d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $27 116d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $27 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 116d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $37 116d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $37 116d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $37 116d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $27 117d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $27 117d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 117d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $35 117d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $28 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 680 history records