Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8879…d1a6 crypto 396 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (180 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$514 (-7%) realized −$514 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%237W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day180.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$723
14 days−$692
30 days−$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$692
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (180 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 301 -11.3% -19.8% 59% 47% -20.6%
≤30d 396 -10.7% -19.2% 60% 48% -18.1%
≤90d 396 -10.7% -19.2% 60% 48% -18.1%
all 396 -10.7% -19.2% 60% 48% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover180.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 48% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 39% -25.9%
15% -34.0% 22% -33.1%
20% -40.5% 8% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$514
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses237 / 159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)396 / 396
History coverage9d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day180.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 396 Trades
no open positions (110 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$19 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $132 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1968 history records