Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x887a…6161
sports · 91 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$29
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 54
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage66d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 6 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? Yes 77¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals Yes 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? No 24¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 Under 33¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Pistons vs. Magic Total Games O/U 5.5 Under 5.5 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? Yes 26¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 5? Up 62¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs? Yes 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League? Yes 20¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves Wolves $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner? Yes 26¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 11 $3 +$9 +282%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $21 +$16 +77%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 12 $10 +$8 +73%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $4 −$4 -97%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $21 −$8 -38%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 04 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $5 +$17 +340%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 03 $6 +$1 +16%
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza win on 2026-03-05? May 02 $30 −$2 -5%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to Score May 02 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $19 −$19 -99%
SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NB May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $15 +$70 +464%
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $5 −$5 -93%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -75%
NBA Playoffs: Pistons vs. Magic Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +97%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Apr 20 $5 +$4 +90%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $15 +$12 +80%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% +$31
other 47% −$39
tech 4% −$11
crypto 1% −$4
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 58m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 58m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 59m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Under 33¢ $3 21d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 26¢ $3 21d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 24d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 24d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 24¢ $2 27d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 27d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 29d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 29d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Wolves 21¢ $7 33d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes $4 40d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 5? BUY Up 62¢ $20 40d
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY Yes 20¢ $6 40d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Wolves 35¢ $10 40d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $8 40d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.4% -3.7% 40% 40% -13.1%
≤30d 16 -19.0% -26.7% 31% 31% -9.8%
≤90d 85 -9.0% -17.7% 36% 36% -11.6%
all 85 -9.0% -17.7% 36% 36% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 36% -11.6%
10% -25.5% 35% -20.1%
15% -32.7% 32% -27.8%
20% -39.3% 28% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.14 · official $29.14 (match) · 174 history records