Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x887b…7633 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$4
other 15% +$1
politics 12% $0
tech 5% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 0% -10.6%
all 30 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -9.8%
10% -17.5% 3% -18.4%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage474d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 −$3 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$2 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 -8%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $1 $0 +15%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $2 $0 -8%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $1 $0 +35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $17 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 21? Mar 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 20 $18 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $42 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $46 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $26 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $32 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.68 · official $43.68 (match) · 85 history records