Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x887e…c0ce crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$337 (-23%) realized −$338 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$231
14 days−$390
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$323
other 21% −$79
sports 7% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.6% -28.1% 57% 43% -42.2%
≤30d 14 -24.3% -31.5% 43% 36% -35.9%
≤90d 14 -24.3% -31.5% 43% 36% -35.9%
all 14 -24.3% -31.5% 43% 36% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 36% -35.9%
10% -38.1% 21% -42.0%
15% -44.1% 14% -47.6%
20% -49.5% 14% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$72 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$338
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 +$14 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $128 +$92 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $229 −$229 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$8 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 38m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $117 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 77¢ $132 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $107 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $87 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $96 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $121 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $100 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $7 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.77 · official $100.77 (match) · 34 history records