Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x887f…7289
sports · 79 markets active 9h ago
4.5score
+$277 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$228 · open +$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$424
Realized+$228
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions20
Markets (closed)56 / 79
History coverage59d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 20 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 70¢ $27 $50 +$22 (+81%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+58%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+18%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+17%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $32 $26 −$5 (-16%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 74¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+35%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 63¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $23 $20 −$4 (-16%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Algeria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 35¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$12 +80%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $24 +$24 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$20 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 12 $51 −$4 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $36 +$28 +78%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $25 +$44 +172%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$12 +238%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 +$13 +325%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $5 +$10 +197%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $5 +$11 +216%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$5 +65%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $5 +$31 +596%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$15 +73%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 +$5 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $20 +$11 +54%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 06 $10 +$5 +53%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 06 $5 +$6 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5 May 06 $19 +$28 +147%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 05 $101 +$29 +29%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Apr 29 $11 −$11 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $20 +$16 +79%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $40 +$40 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% +$236
other 34% +$34
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 49¢ $24 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY 48¢ $30 31h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $4 37h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 47¢ $46 42h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $7 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY 32¢ $10 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $5 2d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 20¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $15 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 36¢ $25 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 57¢ $16 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 3d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 19¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.5% -17.2% 35% 35% -5.5%
≤30d 40 +16.8% +5.7% 42% 42% +4.6%
≤90d 56 +21.4% +9.8% 46% 46% +14.7%
all 56 +21.4% +9.8% 46% 46% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 46% +14.7%
10% -0.7% 46% +3.7%
15% -10.3% 45% -6.3%
20% -19.1% 45% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.62 · official $423.63 (match) · 136 history records