Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8882…03fb weather 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$22,053 (-326%) realized −$183 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day1117.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$725
7 days−$183
14 days−$183
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -10.8%
≤30d 48 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -10.8%
≤90d 48 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -10.8%
all 48 -14.9% -23.0% 31% 31% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1117.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 31% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 31% -19.3%
15% -37.1% 31% -27.1%
20% -43.3% 31% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
64.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$129 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage3d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day1117.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $113 $118 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $58 $74 +$15 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $61 $65 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $71 $60 −$11 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $52 $49 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 30? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 14 $0 −$95 -625043%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $191 −$191 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $62 +$162 +263%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $180 +$332 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$23 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $137 +$161 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $163 −$163 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $170 +$236 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $124 +$177 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $187 +$353 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $216 +$385 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $238 −$238 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $147 +$207 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $162 +$279 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $141 −$141 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $130 +$173 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $78 +$82 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $253 +$395 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $268 +$991 +370%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $238 −$238 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $56 +$107 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.43 · official $403.29 · 3500 history records