trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -39.7% | -45.4% | 40% | 40% | -12.6% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -39.7% | -45.4% | 40% | 40% | -12.6% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -39.7% | -45.4% | 40% | 40% | -12.6% |
| all | 21 | -23.4% | -30.7% | 43% | 43% | -12.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.7% | 43% | -12.0% |
| 10% | -37.3% | 38% | -20.4% |
| 15% | -43.4% | 33% | -28.1% |
| 20% | -48.9% | 10% | -35.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 17 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $26 | +$9 | +36% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $50 | +$19 | +38% |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $8 | −$8 | -95% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $21 | +$8 | +38% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 9? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 9? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $11 | +$9 | +86% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 10? | Mar 10 | $3 | +$1 | +22% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 10? | Mar 10 | $1 | $0 | -36% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 9? | Mar 09 | $3 | +$1 | +33% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28? | Mar 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 2 | Mar 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 2 | Mar 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 21? | Mar 08 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 8? | Mar 08 | $1 | $0 | +47% |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Feb 15 | $1 | +$3 | +300% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 8? | Feb 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Feb 09 | $7 | +$3 | +39% |