Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

88
0x8883…2299
other · 47 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$6 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%
Chart Positions 3 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $28 +$2 +7%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $39 −$9 -23%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +441%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$7 -56%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 +$14 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 −$8 -36%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $104 −$26 -25%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$21 +2010%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 +$3 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$15 +45%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$6 +48%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -79%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $21 +$9 +43%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$9 +140%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% −$24
sports 22% +$32
tech 7% −$4
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $31 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 92¢ $28 1h
Germany to win the second half? SELL Yes 96¢ $28 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Curaçao leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 67¢ $30 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 17h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 18h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +52.6% +38.1% 36% 30% -8.7%
≤30d 44 +52.6% +38.1% 36% 30% -8.7%
≤90d 44 +52.6% +38.1% 36% 30% -8.7%
all 44 +52.6% +38.1% 36% 30% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.1% 30% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here +24.9% 23% -17.4%
15% +12.8% 16% -25.4%
20% +1.8% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.19 · official $29.19 (match) · 124 history records