Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x8884…84ee weather 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+21%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%93W / 114L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$39
14 days+$56
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$66
tech 19% −$12
sports 10% +$18
other 2% −$6
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +82.8% +65.4% 72% 68% +71.1%
≤30d 68 +66.1% +50.3% 68% 57% +39.2%
≤90d 158 +47.6% +33.5% 50% 44% +7.7%
all 207 +52.0% +37.5% 45% 40% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.5% 40% +6.8%
10% +24.3% 38% -3.4%
15% +12.3% 34% -12.8%
20% +1.3% 29% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses93 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)207 / 209
History coverage135d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +182%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$14 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +516%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +108%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$3 +550%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -49%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +88%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $0 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $0 +$2 +386%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +435%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 9? Jun 07 $0 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $0 +$1 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7? Jun 06 $0 $0 +19%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $0 +$1 +148%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $11 +$16 +144%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 1414 history records