Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8884…3457 sports 533 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,039 (+4%) realized +$11,130 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%256W / 306L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day62.9pace
Fees−$3,644est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7,562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$31,164
other 18% +$6,649
world 1% −$1,001
crypto 1% −$1,678
politics 0% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -5.3% -14.3% 47% 46% -6.9%
≤30d 551 -10.2% -18.8% 45% 45% -8.5%
≤90d 562 -9.8% -18.4% 46% 45% -8.1%
all 562 -9.8% -18.4% 46% 45% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 45% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 44% -16.9%
15% -33.3% 40% -24.9%
20% -39.8% 32% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$533) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$410 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$7,562
Realized+$11,130
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses256 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,644
Open positions15
Markets (closed)562 / 533
History coverage32d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day62.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1,116 $1,107 −$9 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $1,011 $1,017 +$6 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $955 $948 −$7 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 52¢ $738 $760 +$22 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 54¢ $615 $633 +$18 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $636 $613 −$23 (-4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $588 $582 −$6 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 44¢ 44¢ $559 $553 −$6 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 61¢ 60¢ $503 $496 −$7 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $359 $356 −$3 (-1%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $213 $212 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 14¢ $110 $21 −$90 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 15 $44 −$167 -382%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $81 −$187 -231%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $195 −$390 -200%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 15 $357 −$755 -212%
Map Handicap: THE (-1.5) vs Fisher College (+1.5) Jun 15 $217 −$496 -229%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $72 −$169 -233%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $232 −$478 -206%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 15 $61 −$239 -392%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $75 −$389 -521%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $4 −$58 -1592%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 15 $140 −$271 -194%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $73 −$194 -267%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 15 $47 −$191 -408%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $85 −$169 -200%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-3.5) Jun 15 $428 −$1,017 -238%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 15 $107 −$214 -200%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie Jun 15 $53 −$106 -201%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Jun 15 $59 −$118 -200%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 15 $61 −$149 -244%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 15 $142 −$344 -242%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $138 −$290 -211%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 15 $23 −$139 -604%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 15 $378 −$822 -218%
LoL: T1 Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Jun 15 $358 −$750 -210%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 Jun 15 $175 −$353 -202%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 15 $231 −$478 -208%
New England Revolution vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $68 −$137 -200%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $65 −$224 -346%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $121 −$264 -218%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 15 $172 −$345 -200%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $107 −$340 -318%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$99 -1021%
Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$122 -245%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $35 −$125 -352%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 Jun 15 $5 −$108 -2151%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 15 $217 −$433 -199%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 15 $270 −$555 -206%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $107 −$225 -211%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 15 $169 −$337 -200%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 15 $252 −$527 -209%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 15 $98 −$239 -244%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 15 $514 −$554 -108%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $576 −$904 -157%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $458 −$765 -167%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $169 +$67 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $750 −$352 -47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $693 −$293 -42%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,202 −$2,363 -197%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $738 +$457 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,678 −$1,678 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 27¢ $398 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 32¢ $65 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $114 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $24 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $54 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 33¢ $100 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 31¢ $43 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $596 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 15¢ $31 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 16¢ $14 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $215 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $1,194 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $356 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $509 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 5¢ $67 6h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $169 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $362 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $62 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $451 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $144 6h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 37¢ $339 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 38¢ $19 7h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $529 9h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $576 9h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 27¢ $707 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $48 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $568 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,561.74 · official $7,561.75 (match) · 3500 history records