Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8884…2ed2 other 91 markets active 7d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized +$27 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 37L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$48
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$177
sports 19% +$161
crypto 7% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +10.7% +0.2% 50% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 41 -24.3% -31.5% 34% 34% -26.3%
≤90d 62 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 40% -7.6%
all 62 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 40% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 40% -7.6%
10% -17.4% 39% -16.5%
15% -25.3% 39% -24.5%
20% -32.7% 34% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions29
Markets (closed)62 / 91
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 64¢ $10 $33 +$23 (+234%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 14¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -55%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +92%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -72%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -75%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$23 +226%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $16 +$8 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $16 +$6 +39%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 +$19 +188%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $30 −$16 -52%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $57 +$7 +12%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $16 −$1 -9%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $11 −$2 -20%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $15 +$6 +38%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 24 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 24 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$23 +223%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$9 +93%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$13 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $5 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 8d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 9d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 9d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 9d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $20 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes $2 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes $3 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 9d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 10d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 10d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 11d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 11d
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 11d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $10 11d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 11d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.16 · official $377.17 (match) · 178 history records