Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
88 0x8887…4bde other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$580 (+6%) realized +$581 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%62W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$350
14 days+$670
30 days+$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$771
world 3% −$146
sports 2% +$32
crypto 2% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +53.9% +39.3% 73% 73% +53.1%
≤30d 30 +49.0% +34.8% 73% 73% +32.3%
≤90d 54 +18.8% +7.5% 57% 57% +9.4%
all 103 +21.9% +10.2% 60% 60% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 60% -3.7%
10% -0.3% 57% -13.0%
15% -9.9% 47% -21.4%
20% -18.8% 36% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$85 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$581
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses62 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage214d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$33 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$82 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$94 +307%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$62 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $171 +$32 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$170 +414%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 16 $20 +$80 +388%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $31 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $30 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $31 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $41 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $41 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 8d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $50 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $30 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $41 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $171 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 11d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $50 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $20 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 12d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 12d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 36¢ $51 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.67 · official $148.67 (match) · 191 history records