Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8887…0274 other 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%17W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$4
other 27% −$6
politics 22% −$4
economics 7% −$2
world 6% $0
crypto 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 33 -0.4% -9.9% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 196 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses17 / 179
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage167d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 08 $40 −$1 -4%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 26 $33 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $36 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 31 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 30 $38 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $32 $0 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $296 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $122 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $82 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $84 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 19 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $130 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL No 90¢ $39 13d
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY No 93¢ $40 13d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 25d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 25d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $39 33d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $39 34d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $37 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $34 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $2 82d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 82d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 82d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $34 82d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $34 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $37 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $37 82d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 96¢ $38 82d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 96¢ $38 82d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $31 82d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $5 83d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $26 83d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 83d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $13 83d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 83d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 83d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 83d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $36 83d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $36 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL No 90¢ $29 83d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 90¢ $30 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.58 · official $37.58 (match) · 729 history records