Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
88 0x888d…c45d sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$181 (+33%) realized +$167 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$163
14 days+$148
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$162
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +48.0% +33.9% 52% 52% +32.6%
≤30d 37 +37.2% +24.1% 49% 49% +21.2%
≤90d 37 +37.2% +24.1% 49% 49% +21.2%
all 37 +37.2% +24.1% 49% 49% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.1% 49% +21.2%
10% +12.2% 49% +9.6%
15% +1.4% 49% -1.0%
20% -8.6% 49% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$167
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)37 / 47
History coverage9d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 7¢ 19¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+178%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Leviatán Esports 42¢ 100¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+138%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 36¢ 66¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+82%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 29¢ 2¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-94%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $20 +$12 +60%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 +$11 +70%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$3 -32%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$5 -33%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $15 +$32 +206%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $25 +$39 +153%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$23 +442%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$10 +67%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$23 +226%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $5 +$23 +442%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$14 +140%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 +$14 +134%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$12 +114%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $10 +$30 +291%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $22 +$24 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 −$1 -9%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $8 −$1 -12%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $22 −$22 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 +$10 +97%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $5 +$7 +134%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $12 +$9 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $6 37m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $8 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $10 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $4 2h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $10 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $20 24h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 35¢ $10 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 43¢ $5 25h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $10 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $7 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 27h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $15 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 40¢ $20 47h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 17¢ $5 2d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 38¢ $10 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 42¢ $9 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $10 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 50¢ $10 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 51¢ $20 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $15 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) BUY G2 Esports 53¢ $10 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $5 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 18¢ $5 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 23¢ $5 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 47¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.85 · official $103.85 (match) · 79 history records