Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x888f…a3d6 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$7
other 24% −$6
politics 17% −$14
sports 15% +$2
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$14
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 28 +87.6% +69.7% 57% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 73 +32.9% +20.2% 38% 3% -9.8%
all 100 +23.9% +12.1% 36% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 2% -9.8%
10% +1.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -8.4% 2% -26.3%
20% -17.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 64
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage290d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $129 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $128 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $232 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $124 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $125 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $16 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $335 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $247 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $501 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $235 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $112 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $249 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $123 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $273 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $104 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $235 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $108 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $91 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $76 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $243 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $256 −$24 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $136 +$7 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $372 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $126 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $138 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $269 +$1 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $150 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $141 −$2 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $571 +$4 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $124 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $285 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $123 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $139 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $121 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $141 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $129 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $124 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $263 −$1 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $250 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $129 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $85 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $116 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $117 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $128 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $116 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $116 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $116 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $116 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $116 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $116 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $28 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $96 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $124 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $125 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $125 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 13¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 13¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 13¢ $16 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $113 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $4 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $18 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $91 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $124 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $123 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $112 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.67 · official $128.74 (match) · 419 history records