Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x888f…9203 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$38
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$24
politics 25% −$13
sports 23% −$14
crypto 7% −$3
world 6% −$7
economics 4% −$4
culture 4% −$10
finance 3% −$5
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.9% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -1.2% -10.6% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 116 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 133 -0.8% -10.2% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 120
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage102d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $64 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $135 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $541 −$3 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $182 −$3 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $211 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $207 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $49 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $66 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $61 −$2 -3%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $46 $0 -1%
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $48 −$11 -22%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $40 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 07 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $157 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $51 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027 Jun 03 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $244 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $175 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $62 2h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $64 9h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 9h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $53 14h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 19h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $46 20h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $46 27h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 27h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 31h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $57 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $58 40h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $51 41h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 46h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $42 46h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 90¢ $24 2d
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 93¢ $25 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $66 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $67 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $67 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $67 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $51 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $52 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.43 · official $48.43 (match) · 503 history records