Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
88 0x8890…cefb sports 776 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,016 (+9%) realized +$4,085 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate71%534W / 223L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day58.7pace
Fees−$684est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$7,283
other 10% −$1
world 1% −$189
crypto 1% −$12
finance 0% −$50
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +4.5% -5.4% 72% 72% -13.9%
≤30d 508 +6.0% -4.1% 70% 66% -7.3%
≤90d 757 +6.7% -3.4% 71% 61% +5.3%
all 757 +6.7% -3.4% 71% 61% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 61% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 52% -4.8%
15% -21.1% 36% -14.0%
20% -28.8% 23% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$33 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$1,100
Realized+$4,085
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses534 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$684
Open positions16
Markets (closed)757 / 776
History coverage46d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 757 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 17¢ 38¢ $113 $257 +$143 (+126%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $172 $157 −$14 (-8%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 52¢ 52¢ $133 $131 −$2 (-2%)
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 38¢ 16¢ $273 $117 −$156 (-57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+6%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Over 79¢ 73¢ $67 $62 −$5 (-8%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 63¢ 59¢ $63 $59 −$4 (-6%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $80 $53 −$27 (-34%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 42¢ $58 $52 −$6 (-10%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $15 $16 +$2 (+10%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Over 73¢ 70¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 63¢ 67¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+6%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 63¢ 29¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-54%)
Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $9 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$9 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $36 +$24 +68%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $21 +$9 +44%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $189 +$42 +22%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $53 +$12 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $39 +$11 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $18 +$4 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $5,137 −$402 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $150 −$109 -72%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $23 +$8 +34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $30 +$13 +42%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $37 +$17 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $38 +$12 +31%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $43 +$13 +31%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $27 +$13 +48%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $25 +$9 +36%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $46 +$24 +52%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $50 +$15 +31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $90 +$19 +21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$43 +108%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $70 −$56 -79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $13 +$7 +57%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $70 +$18 +26%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $30 +$7 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $16 +$4 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $21 −$15 -71%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $35 +$17 +48%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $31 +$15 +50%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $91 +$26 +29%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $50 +$15 +29%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $40 +$7 +18%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $65 +$18 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 24m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $52 26m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $10 26m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $11 44m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 58¢ $15 56m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $15 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $30 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $15 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $9 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 24¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $20 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 67¢ $5 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 75¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $24 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $12 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $20 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 9h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,100.46 · official $1,151.46 · 3500 history records