Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8891…b5fc weather 1064 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,279 (+17%) realized +$3,287 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate83%972W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day91.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$761
other 7% −$16
world 1% +$7
sports 1% +$4
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -32.3% -38.7% 55% 7% -38.3%
≤30d 1176 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 9% -14.5%
≤90d 1176 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 9% -14.5%
all 1176 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 9% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 9% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 4% -22.7%
15% -28.0% 4% -30.2%
20% -35.1% 3% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,479
Realized+$3,287
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses972 / 204
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions60
Markets (closed)1176 / 1064
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day91.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 1176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $162 $163 +$2 (+1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rayan Cherki win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 91¢ $55 $51 −$4 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 96¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 24? No 98¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24? No 98¢ 98¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? No 96¢ 98¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Vinicius 95¢ 95¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? No 96¢ 96¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27 Jun 23 $8 −$48 -612%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4? Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 30? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on February 18? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 17? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 23 $11 −$18 -166%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 23? Jun 23 $1 −$2 -320%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C or higher on Februar Jun 23 $1 $0 +65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Fe Jun 23 $7 −$6 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C or below on March 29? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 21? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 28? Jun 23 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 3? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 2 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on Februa Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on February 27? Jun 23 $3 −$4 -139%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 22? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -101%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 9? Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 26? Jun 23 $0 +$1 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 4? Jun 23 $1 −$166 -16562%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12? Jun 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 1? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -194%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 4? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on March 28? Jun 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Jun 23 $1 +$2 +361%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026? Jun 23 $75 −$115 -154%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February Jun 23 $0 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Feb Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C or higher on March 11? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? Jun 23 $8 −$10 -117%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026? Jun 23 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 15? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on February 2 Jun 23 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 29°F or below on February 2 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8? Jun 23 $36 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 23 $4 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 3? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $35 12m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $11 19m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 90¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $11 1h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Will Rayan Cherki win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $98 1h
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. BUY Vinicius 95¢ $11 5h
Will United States score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 13h
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $12 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $9 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,479.02 · official $1,478.89 (match) · 3500 history records