Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x8891…8fed other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
culture 5% −$6
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage130d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $291 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $267 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $300 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $482 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $381 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $217 −$1 -1%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $361 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $256 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $249 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $862 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 3h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 4h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 5h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 7h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $46 8h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 10h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 11h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 16h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 18h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 25h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 33h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 34h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 35h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 38h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 40h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 41h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 42h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $47 44h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $47 45h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 47h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1357 history records