Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
88 0x8897…5561 other 35 markets active 3h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$8
world 41% +$4
finance 7% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +3.6% -6.2% 67% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 15 +3.6% -6.2% 67% 7% -8.9%
all 35 +16.2% +5.1% 60% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 9% -7.9%
10% -4.9% 6% -16.7%
15% -14.1% 6% -24.8%
20% -22.5% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.37 per $1 lost it wins $8.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage402d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $4 +$2 +48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $39 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $2 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Dec 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $1 +$4 +477%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $6 $0 +2%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m May 24 $6 $0 -2%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 24 $17 +$3 +19%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $3 $0 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Alpine be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 20h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $35 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $26 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $16 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 65¢ $1 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $44 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $44 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records