Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
88 0x8898…4b81 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$336 (+7%) realized +$446 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$481
other 24% −$132
sports 5% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -38.0% -43.9% 26% 26% -20.7%
≤30d 23 -38.0% -43.9% 26% 26% -20.7%
≤90d 24 -35.8% -41.9% 29% 29% -1.4%
all 24 -35.8% -41.9% 29% 29% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 29% -1.4%
10% -47.5% 25% -10.8%
15% -52.6% 25% -19.5%
20% -57.2% 21% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$13 · ×6.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized+$446
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage116d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $307 −$93 (-23%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 34¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 −$4 -37%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $5 +$8 +160%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $30 +$16 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $411 −$27 -7%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $22 +$18 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$25 +62%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $22 −$18 -82%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$13 -26%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 −$28 -92%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 07 $3,322 +$481 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $15 13h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 32¢ $6 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $2 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $13 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 44h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 65¢ $30 45h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $384 2d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $22 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $4 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $38 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $411 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $411 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.45 · official $405.48 (match) · 77 history records