Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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88 0x889c…e375 sports 1132 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$323 (+0%) realized −$502 · open +$825
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%539W / 587L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$2,908est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$8,459
other 9% −$7,167
crypto 5% −$135
world 2% −$1,166
politics 1% −$1,556
tech 1% −$1,056
finance 1% −$447
economics 0% −$102
culture 0% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 47% -16.7%
≤30d 259 -12.8% -21.1% 46% 44% -22.7%
≤90d 1009 -14.5% -22.7% 42% 42% -28.3%
all 1126 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 47% -10.3%
10% -21.0% 47% -18.9%
15% -28.7% 47% -26.8%
20% -35.7% 47% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$300 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2,726
Realized−$502
Unrealized+$825
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses539 / 587
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,908
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1126 / 1132
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$359
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 54¢ 88¢ $920 $1,521 +$601 (+65%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ 70¢ $982 $1,205 +$224 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $507 −$42 -8%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 18 $507 −$23 -4%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 18 $470 −$464 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) Jun 17 $253 −$250 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $254 +$256 +101%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $258 −$254 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $253 +$171 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $253 +$178 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $304 +$267 +88%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $289 +$216 +75%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $152 +$136 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $152 +$123 +81%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $192 −$189 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 −$199 -98%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $84 −$3 -4%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $233 −$233 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 −$253 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $233 −$233 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $288 −$288 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $203 +$175 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $254 +$267 +105%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 16 $193 +$167 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $152 +$102 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $248 +$197 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $152 +$102 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $994 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 53¢ $426 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $465 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $472 1h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Dream 53¢ $484 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 56¢ $470 10h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $506 10h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 54¢ $507 10h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $507 10h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $507 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 15h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 54¢ $253 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Wil BUY 36¢ $255 22h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $4 34h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY 31¢ $499 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 38¢ $489 34h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Co BUY 35¢ $496 35h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $254 36h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $253 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $508 37h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $192 45h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $253 45h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $152 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $152 45h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 57¢ $253 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $137 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $152 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $152 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $152 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,726.17 · official $2,674.47 · 3500 history records