Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x889c…974e crypto 352 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate78%273W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$15
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +1.3% -8.4% 73% 52% -7.4%
≤30d 352 -2.1% -11.5% 78% 38% -9.8%
≤90d 352 -2.1% -11.5% 78% 38% -9.8%
all 352 -2.1% -11.5% 78% 38% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 38% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 17% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 10% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses273 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)352 / 352
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 352 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 674 history records