Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x889d…e705 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$608 (-18%) realized −$587 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$633
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.9% -8.7% 28% 28% -29.5%
≤30d 36 +0.9% -8.7% 28% 28% -29.5%
≤90d 36 +0.9% -8.7% 28% 28% -29.5%
all 36 +0.9% -8.7% 28% 28% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 28% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 25% -36.3%
15% -25.4% 22% -42.4%
20% -32.7% 22% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$53 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$480
Realized−$587
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage2d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $448 $434 −$14 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Spread: Haiti (-3.5) Haiti 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $51 −$6 -12%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 18 $51 −$17 -32%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 18 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 +$28 +136%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$98 +477%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$14 +68%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $334 −$332 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $269 −$261 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $175 +$27 +16%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$36 +174%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +175%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$264 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $541 +$158 +29%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -40%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 7¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $359 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 5¢ $35 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 67¢ $47 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 92¢ $73 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 75¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 70¢ $25 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 14h
Spread: Haiti (-3.5) BUY Haiti 0¢ $3 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $32 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $479.67 · official $479.67 (match) · 74 history records