Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x889e…9053 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 41% +$5
politics 8% +$1
sports 2% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.4%
all 21 -3.2% -12.4% 38% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -10.2%
10% -20.8% 5% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage486d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $111 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Dec 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $22 +$1 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 28 $20 +$4 +23%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 08 $19 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Monmouth vs. Hofstra Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $49 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $49 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $26 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $23 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $19 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $3 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $43 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $48 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $8 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $7 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $4 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $19 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $23 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $4 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $40 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $44 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records