Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88a2…68a0 sports 285 markets active 2h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$640 (-6%) realized −$634 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%117W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days+$25
14 days+$68
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$475
other 9% −$89
crypto 7% +$218
world 3% −$38
politics 2% −$8
economics 2% −$171
culture 1% −$99
weather 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.5% -17.2% 43% 43% -6.6%
≤30d 92 +2.6% -7.2% 52% 52% -2.2%
≤90d 241 -10.5% -19.0% 42% 42% -18.2%
all 270 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 42% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 42% -15.8%
10% -26.0% 41% -23.8%
15% -33.2% 40% -31.2%
20% -39.7% 39% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$32 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$467
Realized−$634
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses117 / 153
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions13
Markets (closed)270 / 285
History coverage657d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 27¢ $60 $89 +$29 (+48%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 78¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+57%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $36 $42 +$6 (+17%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $32 $41 +$9 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $47 $40 −$7 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $38 +$7 (+24%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-18%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 42¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $39 $16 −$22 (-58%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-56%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 35¢ 2¢ $35 $2 −$34 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$41 +141%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $33 +$4 +11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $41 +$119 +291%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $45 +$45 +100%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $39 +$41 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 +$21 +58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 +$34 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $36 +$54 +152%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $64 +$57 +89%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $43 +$42 +99%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $46 +$48 +106%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $46 +$35 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $30 +$30 +100%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 09 $42 +$48 +113%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $39 +$29 +73%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $41 +$39 +96%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $33 +$27 +82%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $44 +$36 +82%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $30 +$28 +93%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $42 +$48 +113%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 04 $46 +$43 +93%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $38 +$42 +108%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $46 +$22 +49%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $153 +$44 +29%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 Jun 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia vs. S BUY 14¢ $38 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $63 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $30 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $0 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $3 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $0 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $0 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $0 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $1 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $2 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $2 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $2 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $16 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $20 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $41 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $29 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 22¢ $41 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $13 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $6 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $41 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $17 4d
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 48¢ $39 4d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $50 4d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 43¢ $30 4d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $42 4d
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 43¢ $8 5d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $467.43 · official $502.02 · 885 history records