trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 20% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 33% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 26 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 46% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.3% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $25 | −$2 | -7% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 25 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 24 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $32 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 23 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 21 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 27 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 11 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi | Jun 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? | Jun 09 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jun 09 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 08 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 05 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Merz events on June 5? | Jun 04 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 13 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad | Apr 12 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Elon tweet 240-249 times April 4 - 11? | Apr 10 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? | Apr 09 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the SPD be part of the next German government? | Mar 28 | $11 | $0 | +0% |