Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
88 0x88a9…e618 sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$273 (+10%) realized +$254 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 28L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$272
other 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 48% -1.0%
≤30d 71 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 48% -1.0%
≤90d 71 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 48% -1.0%
all 71 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 48% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 48% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 31% -10.5%
15% -17.9% 25% -19.2%
20% -25.9% 23% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 28
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions9
Markets (closed)71 / 80
History coverage3d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mika Petkovic vs Hugo Car Mika Petkovic 71¢ 90¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Otto Virtanen 68¢ 78¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ 100¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 49¢ 55¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
ITF Irvine: Noah Zamora vs Stian Klaassen Noah Zamora 53¢ 58¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Hive 42¢ 44¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Alexandra Eala 57¢ 52¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
ITF Bolszewo: Nika Hurkacz vs Victoria Bosio Jun 18 $30 +$6 +20%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $60 −$27 -45%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $31 +$38 +124%
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 18 $30 +$6 +20%
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
ITF Milano: Stefano D'agostino vs Georgii Kravchenko Jun 18 $30 +$4 +12%
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 18 $30 +$7 +23%
Linda Noskova vs. Diane Parry: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$17 +55%
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $30 +$26 +86%
ITF Ystad: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Madison Sieg Jun 18 $30 +$6 +20%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Arthur Bonnaud vs Mickael Kaouk Jun 18 $30 +$14 +46%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $30 +$2 +7%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 18 $30 −$10 -35%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 18 $30 −$7 -24%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$1 -3%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$28 +93%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $60 −$22 -36%
Set Handicap: Kitahara (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Set Handicap: Wild (-1.5) vs Hardt (+1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$18 +60%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $61 −$21 -35%
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Jun 17 $30 +$23 +76%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Luca Pow vs Lucas Marionneau Jun 17 $30 +$19 +62%
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
ITF Tulsa: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Gavin Young Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Blois: Diana Martynov vs Ipek Oz Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
ITF Mohammedia: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Luna Vujovic Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $122 +$89 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs Zach Stephens Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $30 +$6 +21%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Samobor: Luca Castagnola vs Nazar Oliynykov Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $30 +$4 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 57¢ $30 2m
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) BUY Hive 42¢ $31 1h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $30 1h
ITF Irvine: Noah Zamora vs Stian Klaassen BUY Noah Zamora 53¢ $30 2h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald BUY Weronika Ewald 91¢ $30 2h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 90¢ $30 3h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 80¢ $30 4h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Quinn 44¢ $31 5h
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic BUY Natalija Senic 94¢ $30 5h
ITF Milano: Stefano D'agostino vs Georgii Kravchenko BUY Georgii Kravchenko 89¢ $30 6h
ITF Bolszewo: Nika Hurkacz vs Victoria Bosio BUY Victoria Bosio 83¢ $30 7h
ITF Lourinha: Francisco Rocha vs Fabrizio Andaloro BUY Fabrizio Andaloro 83¢ $30 7h
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi BUY Berfu Cengiz 81¢ $30 7h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Pedro Sakamoto 83¢ $30 7h
ITF Ystad: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Madison Sieg BUY Madison Sieg 83¢ $30 8h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 93¢ $30 9h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 90¢ $30 9h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Jia-Jing Lu 65¢ $30 10h
Set Handicap: Kitahara (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) BUY Lin 60¢ $30 12h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Arthur Bonnaud vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Mickael Kaouk 68¢ $30 13h
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 62¢ $30 13h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $30 13h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Varvara Panshina 75¢ $30 14h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 68¢ $30 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 74¢ $30 17h
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza BUY Midori Castillo Meza 87¢ $30 20h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 83¢ $30 21h
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault BUY Nicolas Arseneault 76¢ $30 21h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $30 21h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $30 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.54 · official $288.55 (match) · 140 history records