Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
88 0x88a9…4906 crypto 630 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$481 (-2%) realized −$481 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate71%450W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$156
14 days−$228
30 days−$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 50% -22.9%
≤30d 49 +10.8% +0.3% 76% 61% -22.5%
≤90d 430 +15.5% +4.5% 67% 56% -17.5%
all 630 +18.1% +6.8% 71% 59% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 59% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 43% -21.9%
15% -12.7% 39% -29.5%
20% -21.3% 13% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$26 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$481
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses450 / 180
Open positions0
Markets (closed)630 / 630
History coverage104d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 630 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $429 −$231 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $431 +$42 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$38 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$37 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $152 −$55 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $357 −$22 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $100 −$49 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 22 $36 −$17 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 22 $51 −$40 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 22 $36 −$17 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 22 $36 −$16 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $36 −$16 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $253 −$131 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $111 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 22 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 22 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 22 $34 +$17 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 22 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 22 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 22 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 22 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 22 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 22 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 21 $61 +$31 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 21 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 15 $14 −$8 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $244 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $377 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $246 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $88 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $66 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $14 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $33 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $204 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3339 history records