Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88aa…2f5e sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,210 (+9%) realized +$3,441 · open +$769
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%31W / 30L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$505est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$4,388
other 2% +$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 51% -0.6%
≤30d 61 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 51% -0.6%
≤90d 61 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 51% -0.6%
all 61 -4.9% -13.9% 51% 51% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 51% -0.6%
10% -22.2% 49% -10.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.7% 36% -18.8%
20% -36.6% 28% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$691) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$441 vs −$325 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$7,344
Realized+$3,441
Unrealized+$769
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses31 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$505
Open positions14
Markets (closed)61 / 75
History coverage3d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 81¢ 80¢ $2,095 $2,079 −$16 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Shuai Zhang 48¢ 94¢ $887 $1,728 +$841 (+95%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 44¢ 42¢ $1,561 $1,508 −$53 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Rafael Jodar 71¢ 70¢ $645 $640 −$5 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 61¢ 62¢ $393 $403 +$10 (+2%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 57¢ 56¢ $248 $242 −$7 (-3%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 31¢ 30¢ $234 $231 −$4 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 35¢ 38¢ $192 $206 +$14 (+7%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 50¢ 50¢ $154 $153 −$2 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Fnatic 54¢ 52¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Team Nemesis 59¢ 57¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 59¢ 62¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 52¢ 54¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Game Master 29¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $141 +$103 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1,541 +$1,083 +70%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $933 −$912 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $52 +$52 +101%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $2,553 +$1,012 +40%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,636 −$1,614 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $63 +$37 +59%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $179 −$60 -33%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $133 +$63 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $916 +$1,227 +134%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $558 +$662 +119%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $126 +$180 +144%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $161 +$128 +79%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $64 −$63 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$117 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $587 +$485 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11,363 −$3,557 -31%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $3,197 +$1,648 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $65 −$64 -98%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 13 $49 −$49 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $718 +$299 +42%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $93 +$49 +52%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 13 $306 −$305 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $536 −$531 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $164 −$161 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $474 −$466 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,052 −$12 -1%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $125 +$42 +34%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $61 −$61 -99%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $111 +$28 +26%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $1,473 +$1,078 +73%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $977 +$949 +97%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $230 −$227 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $109 −$108 -99%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $263 +$118 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $691 +$301 +44%
Ilkley: Katie Swan vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 13 $262 +$89 +34%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $162 +$50 +31%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $316 +$251 +79%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $375 +$1,346 +359%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $2,332 +$773 +33%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $195 +$44 +23%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $308 −$304 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 59¢ $58 38m
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 31¢ $239 54m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 35¢ $196 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 29¢ $8 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 57¢ $252 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 54¢ $62 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 57¢ $141 9h
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 47¢ $8 10h
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 47¢ $2 10h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $19 10h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 48¢ $901 10h
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Golden Knights 69¢ $923 11h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 55¢ $1,636 11h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,541 11h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 44¢ $33 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $2,553 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $1,587 14h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 18¢ $32 16h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 50¢ $157 16h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY 4ikibamboni 63¢ $63 18h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 55¢ $22 19h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco SELL Paris Basketball 53¢ $23 19h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 34¢ $0 19h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 34¢ $19 19h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 34¢ $1 19h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 34¢ $14 19h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 56¢ $53 19h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 56¢ $6 19h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 56¢ $64 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,344.31 · official $7,344.31 (match) · 171 history records