Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
88 0x88ac…992f other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$240 (+33%) realized +$270 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$17
sports 25% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.2% +6.9% 40% 40% +26.3%
≤30d 15 +18.2% +6.9% 40% 40% +26.3%
≤90d 15 +18.2% +6.9% 40% 40% +26.3%
all 15 +18.2% +6.9% 40% 40% +26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 40% +26.3%
10% -3.3% 40% +14.2%
15% -12.7% 40% +3.2%
20% -21.2% 27% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$14 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$270
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$6 -28%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $43 +$202 +470%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 +$16 +105%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$18 +73%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $98 +$45 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 64¢ $101 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $20 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $245 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 26h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $1 26h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $47 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 27h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 33h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 45h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 46h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 2d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $98 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $100.12 · 30 history records